10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. 

Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight.

At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic

8* Idaho State (9:05 ET): While not a lot of people are going to be playing this matchup tonight, it already feels like the sharp money is on Idaho State. The Bengals are certainly not going to attract a lot of attention from the public, but this is a great spot to take them. They did just lose two in a row at home, both to Montana. But the games were close (decided by a total of seven points) and ISU hasn’t been this big of an underdog since it covered the spread at Utah back on December 8th. 

Now there’s a reason the spread is so large for tonight. Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky with an 11-2 SU conference record and has won its last nine games. They’ve covered the spread in the last five and are 7-2 ATS L9. But a two-week layoff probably came at the wrong time. The Eagles haven’t played since winning at Montana on February 22nd and could very well be “out of rhythm” for tonight. That’s a concern when laying such a big number at the betting window. 

Idaho State is 6-2 ATS on the road this season. For all their dominance, Eastern Washington has been asked to lay 12.5 or more points only one time at home. That was against last place Idaho, who is 1-20 SU. Idaho State is better than they are being given credit for. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. They are tied for 4th in the Big Sky and while there’s a big gap between the top three and everyone else, it’s a respectable place to be. Take the points. 8* Idaho State

10* UNLV (9:00 ET): This is a golden opportunity for UNLV to possibly spring an upset. That may seem like a shocking statement considering how well San Diego State has played recently. But the Rebels almost always seem to give the Aztecs fits as the last four meetings have all been decided by single digits with three of those final margins being four points or less. The last time the teams met was just over a year ago and UNLV won that one (on the road) 66-63 as 14.5-point underdogs. 

The Aztecs have swept their last five opponents, winning 10 in a row overall with nine of the wins coming by 12 or more. They are ranked #19 in the latest AP Poll (#21 in Coaches). However, they’ve really been feasting on the bottom of the Mountain West with eight of those 10 victories coming against teams in the lower half of the standings. They had a lot more trouble last weekend with a good Boise State team as those wins came by just 4 and 12 points. The 12-point victory is completely misleading as that game went to OT.

SDSU’s regular season was supposed to end Saturday, but this is a make-up game. UNLV has another make-up game coming Saturday at Wyoming. So it is their final home game before the MWC Tournament (played here in Vegas). The Rebels have won three of four, including a big comeback against Fresno State on Friday. Over its last eight games, UNLV has been beaten by more than three points only one time. They are 8-3 SU at home and averaging 12.6 more PPG than they allow. Take the points. 10* UNLV

8* Utah (7:00 ET): Oregon State has been one of the best bets in the country over the last two months as they are 12-1-1 ATS their L14 games including six straight covers. This is actually the Beavers’ second six-game ATS win streak during that time. The first ended with a push against Washington State (they won that game by two) then they were annihilated 79-48 at Colorado. Since then, yes they are 6-0 ATS, but only 3-3 SU. OSU has won two straight, both on the road, but I feel their “mojo” runs out here as they play a third straight road game against a revenge-minded Utah squad. Lay the short number in this one. 

On Saturday, Utah showed what it is capable of as they beat USC 71-61 right here in Salt Lake City. The Utes were 4.5-point underdogs in that one, as you figured they might be considering they were up against the team many feel is the best in the Pac 12 this year. But the Utes played an almost flawless second half and went on to record its first win of the season against a Top 25 opponent. However, that’s a little misleading as they've also beaten Colorado (before the Buffaloes were ranked). 

Utah is far better than its 10-11 SU record as there have been a few losses this year where they blew large halftime leads. They’ve beaten USC, Colorado and Arizona, which is no small achievement. One team they did not beat was Oregon State as two weeks ago it was an 18-point loss in Corvallis. Interestingly enough, the Utes were favored (by two) to win that day. I think we’re getting a real “discount” on them at home tonight as the Beavers average only 62.1 PPG away from home while the Utes allow just 64.1 PPG at home. Prior to winning its last two games, OSU was just 1-6 SU in road games. 8* Utah