8* Under Rockies/Giants (10:05 ET): It's been established that when you take Colorado outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field, their offensive production experiences a rather dramatic decrease. Just to illustrate, they are averaging a whopping 6.9 runs per game at Coors, a full rpg more than any other team averages in its home park. On the road, the Rockies are scoring only 4.5 rpg. That's the biggest home vs. road split in the league obviously. Matched up w/ a division foe that has its own issues scoring (no matter where it plays) the Under is the clear call here.

San Francisco had gone Over in five straight games prior to yday's 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. The Giants were actually in a position to sweep the three game series (on the road!) before losing Sunday. But let's not mistake this for a good team, okay? The Giants own the NL's worst run differential (-90) and have scored the second fewest runs in the league. They are 28th overall in MLB in runs scored, 30th (last) in team batting average and 29th in OPS. I don't expect them to score many runs today. The last time they hosted Colorado, three of the four games stayed Under (w/ one push). 

Drew Pomeranz is off a bad start for the Giants as he allowed seven runs to the Dodgers last Wednesday. But in the two starts before that one, he allowed ZERO earned runs in 10 IP. Both of those starts came at home while the last one was in LA. Colorado counters w/ Jon Gray, who is off a quality start in Arizona where he surrendered only two runs (one unearned) in 6 IP. The start before that, he had 10 K's and no walks. Pomeranz has a 1.89 ERA in five career starts vs. Colorado. Gray hasn't been nearly as successful against SF, but this is a much weaker team than those previous editions. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under White Sox/Red Sox (7:10 ET): I also like this game to stay Under. While I do firmly believe Boston is going to win, scoring runs off Giolito has proven easier said than done this year. He did give up a season-high six in his last outing, which came at an unfamiliar venue (Wrigley Field). Before that, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive starts, all against American League opponents. One of those nine starts came against Boston, whom he held to three runs in five innings. The Under is still 7-2 his L9 starts overall. 

Like I said in the other writeup, Rodriguez is the team leader in wins for Boston and should pitch well here. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. The Red Sox scored only one run yday in a loss to Toronto. This win will have to come in low-scoring fashion as the Under is 5-1 following the L6 times Boston has scored two runs or less their previous game. 8* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Boston (7:10 ET): This game immediately caught my eye for the line being so low. There obviously had to be a reason that Boston wasn't closer to -200 on the ML and that reason is that Lucas Giolito is starting for the White Sox. Giolito has been excellent in 2019 w/ a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. But he did give up a season-high six runs in his last outing and pitches for - pretty clearly - the inferior team in this matchup. I know it wasn't a good weekend for Boston (dropped two of three to Toronto), but they'll bounce back tonight at Fenway Park. 

I wrote about the White Sox overachieving ways in my analysis for their Saturday matchup w/ Texas. They ended up losing that game 6-5 and then they lost again Sunday 7-4. Despite being within cracking distance of .500 (36-39), this is a team w/ a YTD run differential of -62. That's worse than the last place Royals, who are 27-51 on the season. The gap between Chicago's actual (36) and expected (31) win total is actually tied for the largest in all of MLB w/ the latter number being based off their season run differential. Bottom line is that this is a much WORSE team than the record shows. 

The Red Sox season got off to a slow start, but they've bounced back to get into Wild Card position and should be fine the rest of the way. Yes, they just dropped two of three (at home!) to a bad Toronto team, blowing a 6-0 in one of the losses. But they've still won 8 of their last 11 and have a run differential of +51 (5th best in AL) for the year. Starting tonight will be Eduardo Rodriguez, the team leader in wins (8) and he has an 11-4 TSR overall. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. He was on the right side of a 15-2 decision against Chicago last month, part of a series that saw the Red Sox take three of the four games. 8* Boston

8* Over Royals/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. Cleveland is out for revenge here as the Royals shockingly swept them at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for this game to go Over the total. 

Indians' hitters should feast on KC starter Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. For the year, Keller has a 4.45 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 16 starts. The Royals are 4-12 in those games. His numbers get even worse on the road where he has a 2-8 team start record. That last start (where he allowed 7 runs) came on the road against Seattle. Keller allowed multiple HR's. Cleveland's offense has begun to produce a bit more of late as they've scored 7+ runs in four of their last six games. 

Adam Plutko goes here for the Indians and while he's pitched well, there was one bad outing (allowed 7 runs to Tampa Bay). The home run ball has been a bit of a problem for Plutko as he's surrendered a total of nine in his five starts, including four in that loss to Tampa Bay. While I do think the Indians win here, it'll have to come in high-scoring fashion. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Royals' last five road games and is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times they've been off a win (beat Minnesota 6-1 on Sunday). 8* Over Royals/Indians

9* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. This one is all about revenge for Cleveland as the Royals shockingly swept them out at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for the Tribe to gain a measure of payback Monday. 

The Indians have won this division three straight years. But by standing pat this past offseason, it seems they have slipped a bit. Minnesota is far out in front, but a wise decision has been made to start relying on some youth as recent callups have paid off. Guys like Oscar Mercado and Bobby Bradley are producing, resulting in the team now being a season-best seven games over .500. Tonight they'll have Adam Plutko on the mound and he's pitched well in five previous starts, save for one forgettable outing. His L3 starts have produced a 0.98 WHIP. If he can work on limiting the home run ball, he'll be a solid member of this rotation. 

Kansas City happens to be bottom five in all of baseball in # of HR's hit, so Plutko seems good in that regard. As for the Indians' hitters, they should feast on Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. The Royals have lost the last five times Keller has started, not that it's all his fault, as he's been provided little in the way of run support. The offense has scored a grand total of six runs in those five losses, twice getting shutout and never scoring more than three in any one game. The Tribe gets its revenge. 9* Cleveland