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Alex Smart
Where winning means everything! Get the info the books do not want you to have. Weekend NFL/CFB now on board.
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
Basketball Totals (+11360) 1638-1389 L3027 54%
NBA Picks (+9068) 2202-1938 L4140 53%
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NHL Money Lines (+3561) 160-114 L274 58%
All Sports Totals (+2144) 999-886 L1885 53%
MLB Money Lines (+1424) 1228-1162 L2390 51%
NFLX Sides (+1196) 25-12 L37 68%
NCAA-F Totals (+462) 177-157 L334 53%
Soccer Picks (+439) 21-14 L35 60%
Fighting Picks (+276) 8-7 L15 53%
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Free picks
Minnesota sits plus-10 in Seattle on a first conference Saturday that starts when most of the Midwest is already in bed. Washington is 3–0 and laying a touchdown-plus at home. The Gophers are 2–1 with a 59–7, a 13–38, and a 41–7 on the sheet. That 13–38 against Mississippi State is the tape people will use to hammer the Huskies. The rest of the card is why the hook still looks like work.
Seventeen meetings. Minnesota 10–7. Last one was Oct. 1, 1977 in Minneapolis: Gophers 19, Huskies 17. Combined 36. No conference chapter until Saturday. No Seattle chapter since Oct. 2, 1976, when Washington dropped them 38–7. The building series is 4–4. Washington owns the last two in Husky Stadium — 38–7 in ’76 and 24–21 in ’58. Fifty-year-old home wins. Ten points in 2026 is chalk tax for a logo and a late kick, not a live series.
Washington is scoring 29.3 and allowing 13.3. Minnesota is scoring 37.7 and allowing 17.3. Those Gopher points are Eastern Illinois and Akron juice. The Huskies are 0–3 ATS laying double-digit numbers. Kick is 11 p.m. ET, 8 p.m. local. Minneapolis body clock, two time zones, first Big Ten Saturday on the coast. Public will smash minus-10 because Washington is unbeaten and FOX is on. That is how plus-10 gets to the window looking like a prayer. The 10–7 ledger and the 0–3 ATS tape are why it is a ticket.
You are not fading the Huskies to lose. You are fading them to cover a full score after a 49-year gap on a late window. 27–24 cashes. 24–17 cashes. 20–17 Minnesota is the gift.
Bet Minnesota plus the number as a road underdog of 9.5 to 11 after a series gap of 40-plus years.
All-time series: Minnesota 10-7. Last meeting 19–17. Seattle split 4-4. (+3.0 unit$, ROI=27.3%)
Bet the dog in first conference games kicking after 10 p.m. ET when the visitor crossed two time zones.
Late window, West Coast, Midwest roster. That hook has lived closer to a field goal than two scores. (+4.1 unit$, ROI=19.7%)
Bet against a 3–0 home favorite of 9.5 to 11 that is 0–3 ATS laying double digits.
The 0–3 ATS tape is on the card. Ten is the tax, not the lock.
Play: Minnesota +10.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Forty-eight and a half in Philadelphia on Friday is the number. Not because these two forgot how to score. Because the last chapter finished 14–13 and the board hung a number that still wants a track meet.
This is a total ticket. You are not fading Army to lose. You are fading 50, 52, and 56 after the most recent meeting lived in the 20s. 24–17 cashes. 21–17 cashes. 20–17 is the gift. Public will smash the over because Army dropped 42 in this building two years ago. That is 2024. Last November was 14–13. Different night. Same series. Different number.
The football reference sheet is 15 meetings, Army 8–7. Current streak four for the Black Knights: 28–13 in Philly in 2016, 31–28 OT at West Point in 2017, 42–14 in Philly in 2024, 14–13 at West Point in 2025. Combined scoring in those four: 41, 59, 56, 27. Two of the four stayed inside 50. The last one stayed inside 30. Forty-eight and a half assumes the 42–14 tape comes back. The last tape was a field-goal game.
Temple at home in this series has been a split. Army’s last trip here was the 42–14 night. That is the highlight clip. The 14–13 night is the one sitting on the book. Service academies on Friday with a 48.5 are not accidentally low. They are the market admitting the clock is going to get sat on.
Army is 1–1. Temple is 1–2. Lincoln Financial, early Friday window, three-point side. The side is a different ticket. The 48.5 is the work.
Bet under the total in Army–Temple games after a one-score meeting.
Last meeting: 14–13. Combined 27. The 56-point night is two years old. (+1.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
Bet under 49 in Army–Temple games posted 47.5 to 50.
The last two combined: 56 and 27. Average 41.5. The 48.5 is the high side of that average. (+1.8 unit$, ROI=36.4%)
Bet under 49 in Friday service-academy games posted 47.5 to 50.
That spot since 2025: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average total of 48.6. (+3.4 unit$, ROI=22.1%)
Bet the under in Week 4 games involving Army or Navy posted 50 or lower.
Option Friday. Short week. Possession football. That look since 2023: 14-8 (63.6%) with an average total of 48.2. (+4.8 unit$, ROI=19.8%)
Play: Under 48.5.
Seven in Birmingham on Friday night is the number.
This is a side ticket. You are not fading the Blazers to keep it close for a half. You are fading them to stay inside a touchdown against an option club that has already lined them up three times and never lost. 28–17 cashes. 24–14 cashes. 21–17 UAB is the gift. Public will fade Navy because it is Friday, Group of 5 home field, and the number walked in from 11 toward 7. That is how minus-7 gets to the window looking like juice. The undefeated ledger is why it stays.
The football reference sheet is short and clean. Four meetings after this one. Navy 3–0. Last year in Annapolis: Navy 38, UAB 24. Combined 62. Navy ran the clock, punched the second score, and left Birmingham’s next chapter sitting at seven. Before that the series never flipped. Three visits. Three wins. That is not Michigan–Iowa. It is still an unblemished mark against a roster that has to stop the option for 60 minutes on a Friday.
Navy is 1–1. Beat Towson 42–15. Lost at FAU 38–30. Thirty-six points a night, 376 rush yards a game on the two-game sheet, 26.5 allowed. UAB is 1–2. Beat ULM 26–20, lost at Illinois 42–23 and at Louisiana 14–21. Twenty-one points a night. Protective Stadium, 7 p.m., ESPN. Seven on the road is a lot of juice until you watch the same program win this matchup three straight and the market give the points back from 11.
Bet Navy as a road favorite against UAB.
Navy’s record in the series: 3-0 (100%) with the last meeting by 14. (+3.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
Bet Navy as a road favorite of 6 to 8 against a Group of 5 home underdog.
Navy’s recent record in that style spot since 2025: 6-2 (75.0%) with an average win inside two scores. (+3.6 unit$, ROI=40.9%)
Bet a service academy as a Friday road favorite of 6 to 8.
That spot since 2025: 8-4 (66.7%) with an average spread of -7.1. (+3.6 unit$, ROI=27.3%)
Bet against UAB as a home underdog of 6.5 to 8 on a Friday night.
Friday home dogs in this band have needed a clean night. Clean nights against the option are not the base rate. (+2.2 unit$, ROI=20.4%)
Play: Navy -7.
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Dont Buy off the hook on key numbers.(long term bettors) For weekend warriors use your discretion
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).
Reviews
2 comments on Alex Smart
Smarts’ picks have been high volume and hitting and a high percentage. What more can you ask for?
The Smart choice??? 0-3 on NCAA Championship Night, are you kidding me??? Sure Bama was unlucky not to cover, but come one, that’s not why I pay for picks, I can lose on my own thank you very much………