Alex Smart Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Paul Skenes is rolling again, and that makes the Pirates moneyline the cleanest play on Saturday’s slate against the Cubs at PNC Park.

After a rough stretch that saw him go winless across nine starts, Skenes has flipped the script with three straight victories and a 2.45 ERA over his last 18.1 innings. He tossed seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts against Cleveland last time out, and the numbers stack up nicely: 9-8 overall with a 3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 138 strikeouts in 115.1 innings. That works out to a K/9 of roughly (138 × 9) / 115.1 ≈ 10.8, which is elite territory. His home ERA sits around 3.04 across 68 innings, and the walk rate stays tight at just 26 free passes all season.

Historically he owns the Cubs. Across eight career starts versus Chicago he owns a 2.77 ERA in 39 innings with 53 strikeouts, a K/9 that climbs to about 12.2. The last meeting on May 28 produced 10 punchouts and only one earned run in 5.1 frames even though the bullpen couldn’t finish the job. Ian Happ is 5-for-15 lifetime against him and Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 4-for-15, but the overall sample favors the big right-hander.

Shota Imanaga is no soft touch. He comes in 6-8 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and he just threw seven scoreless innings against Minnesota. Over his last three starts the ERA dips to roughly 1.62 across 16.2 innings. The lefty also owns a ridiculous 0.28 career ERA against Pittsburgh in five starts, allowing just one earned run in 32 innings. That number will make anyone pause. Yet the recent form and park context tilt the other way.

PNC Park has been kinder to Skenes than most venues, and the Pirates offense has been producing at a .260 clip that ranks near the top of the National League. Pittsburgh sits 27-25 at home and has outscored opponents by 17 runs over its last ten games while posting a 3.43 team ERA in that stretch. The season series is knotted at 4-4, so neither side owns a clear psychological edge.

The math is simple. Skenes’ recent strikeout rate and low WHIP give him a clear advantage in run prevention, while the Cubs’ road offense has been solid but not overwhelming. When you layer the home-park factor with Skenes’ career dominance against this lineup, the edge shows up clearly on the moneyline.

I’ve watched enough of these matchups to know Skenes can look human for stretches, but the last three starts feel different. The velocity is there, the command is back, and the home crowd will be loud. This is the spot I want on the board. Take the Pirates moneyline and enjoy the evening

I’ve been staring at this 7.5 total in Toronto at Boston for a good while now and the more I turn it over the more it feels like the kind of number a sharp book would rather not see you take. Dylan Cease sits at 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA over 104.1 innings, 155 strikeouts against only 45 walks, a WHIP of 1.14, and a pure K/9 that clocks in around 13.4. Sonny Gray answers with a 12-1 mark, 2.48 ERA across 101.2 innings, just 28 walks, 90 punchouts, and a 1.12 WHIP that keeps the traffic light all afternoon. Put those two side by side and the combined ERA lands at roughly 2.58 while the strikeout-to-walk differential balloons past 170 net outs removed from the equation before anyone even puts the ball in play.

The recent stretch tells the same story. Cease has gone six-plus in most of his last handful of starts and kept the damage under three runs more often than not, including a clean five-inning shutout the last time he worked this park. Gray has been borderline surgical at home, limiting free bases and forcing weak contact that dies in the outfield grass. When you run the simple math of their combined walks per nine (under 3.2) against the strikeout volume, the expected free-pass rate drops low enough that multi-run innings become the exception instead of the rule. Historical meetings between these clubs with quality arms on the mound have produced more games under eight than over it in recent seasons, and the current form only tightens that lean.

I keep coming back to the differential. 245 combined strikeouts versus 73 walks over a little more than 205 innings is the kind of ratio that quietly stacks the deck. Factor in the ground-ball tendencies both have shown when they need a double play and the math starts looking like six or seven total runs is the more honest number than anything higher. Fenway can be loud on a good day, yet these two have spent the year making good days hard to come by for opposing lineups. I’ve taken enough of these low totals with elite dual starters to know the ones that feel clean usually are. This one feels clean. I’m on the under at 7.5 and sleeping just fine with it.

The Toronto Blue Jays sit as slight underdogs Saturday afternoon at Fenway against the Boston Red Sox, and that line feels like one of those quiet spots where the numbers start whispering a little louder than the public narrative. Dylan Cease takes the ball for Toronto after a season that has quietly turned into something special, sitting at 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA across 104.1 innings, 155 strikeouts against just 45 walks, and a WHIP of 1.14 that keeps the free passes from getting out of hand. His K/9 sits near 13.4, and the differential between strikeouts and walks creates a clean edge that shows up in the math, K minus BB equals roughly 110 net swing-and-miss opportunities that force hitters into early counts and weak contact.

Sonny Gray counters with an eye-catching 12-1 mark and a 2.48 ERA over 101.2 innings, walking only 28 while striking out 90 for a more modest 8.0 K/9. The win total looks shiny, yet the underlying contact rates and lower miss rate leave less margin when the opponent’s starter is generating that volume of empty swings. Home splits for Gray remain solid, roughly a 2.10 ERA in limited samples at Fenway this year, but Cease already carved out five scoreless frames there back on June 16 with seven punchouts, proving the park’s quirks do not automatically favor the home right-hander when the road arm is locating the slider and fastball at the top of the zone.

Recent history between these clubs tilts Toronto’s way. The Blue Jays took three of four in their last series at Fenway in mid-June and hold a clear edge in the 2026 season series, winning five of the first six meetings. That is not noise, it is a pattern of competitive at-bats against Boston pitching and timely sequencing that keeps games within reach. Toronto’s overall road mark sits at 21-26, nothing flashy, yet when Cease is on the mound the run prevention jumps and the offense needs only two or three runs to make the math work. Boston’s recent form has been strong, nine wins in their last ten at one point, yet they still allow enough hard contact that a high-strikeout starter can neutralize the middle of the order.

Simple expected-value thinking frames the play cleanly. At plus-money around +104 the implied win probability sits near 49 percent. Cease’s season-long peripherals and the head-to-head trend push the true probability a few points higher once you weight the strikeout differential and the recent scoreless outing at the same venue. The formula is straightforward, true edge equals true probability minus implied probability, and even a modest three-to-four percent cushion turns a short-priced dog into a positive play over a full sample of similar matchups. Add the fact that both clubs sit on normal rest and the bullpens have been taxed at different rates lately, and the starting pitcher edge becomes the decisive factor rather than any late-inning coin flip.

I keep coming back to this one because the numbers line up without needing to force anything. Cease is missing bats at an elite clip, Gray is winning games but not dominating the same way, and Toronto has already shown it can win at Fenway this season. That combination of recent form, strikeout math, and a soft underdog price is the kind of spot that rewards patience. Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline and let the peripherals do the heavy lifting.