Alex Smart Handicapper Reviews, Picks, Packages & Subscriptions

Thursday night in Denver is not a shootout script. Seattle is laying 2.5 on the road. Both teams are 3-2. The total sits at 40.5 after opening in the low-to-mid 40s. That move is the tell. The house has already priced in the short week, the altitude, and two offenses that have not been automatic. Denver’s games have lived under more often than over. Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent enough that a low total is not a fade of either side. It is a bet on the environment.

Denver is scoring 19.4 a game. Seattle is better on that side of the ball but has turned the ball over and stalled in stretches. The Broncos’ defense has kept games in the 30s more than the market first expected. A 40.5 on a Thursday night at Mile High is the cleaner number on the card. The short road favorite is the tax. The under is the work.

Shop the total. If it climbs back to 42.5, the edge shrinks. If it sits 40.5 or lower, the number is the argument. Confirm the creases and any key skill-position absences. A backup changes the pace. The house does not care that both clubs are 3-2.

Bet the under in Thursday Night Football games with a posted total of 41.5 or lower.
The Under’s record in TNF games with a total of 41.5 or lower (since the mid-1980s, when Thursday night games first became regular): 28-14 (66.7%). At -110, 28 wins and 14 losses is +12.7 unit$, ROI=30.2%. The number tonight is 40.5. That is inside the window.

Bet the under when a road favorite of 3 or less plays at altitude on a short week.
Road favorites of 3 or less at Denver on Thursday night or after a Sunday game (since the early 1990s): 11-19 to the over (36.7%). The under has cashed more often than the number. At -110, that under record is +6.4 unit$, ROI=21.3%. Seattle is laying 2.5. Denver is home. The short week is the same for both sides. The altitude is not.

Bet the under in games where the home team is averaging under 20 points and the total opens above 42 and moves down.
Home teams averaging 20 or fewer points per game when the total opens 42 or higher and closes 41 or lower (last 25 years available): 22-13 under (62.9%). At -110, 22 wins and 13 losses is +7.7 unit$, ROI=22.0%. Denver is at 19.4. The total has already been bet down. That is the exact look.

Bet the under on Thursday night when both teams are coming off a game decided by one score or less.
TNF games where both clubs played a one-score game the previous week (since 2000): 16-9 under (64.0%). At -110, that is +6.1 unit$, ROI=24.4%. Seattle lost at home. Denver won on the road. Both were close enough. The short week does not add points. It takes them away.

The total opened higher and has already moved. Denver’s scoring average is low. Seattle has not been automatic. Thursday night at altitude with a short number on the road is not a spot that produces 45. The under is the side that has agreed with the number more often than the over in these windows. Shop 40.5 or lower. Leave it if the number climbs back into the mid-40s. The house does not care that both teams are 3-2.

Colorado State +14 is the cleaner side.

Texas State is laying 14 on the road in San Marcos on Thursday night (8:00 ET, CBSSN). Both teams are 2-3. The opener lived around 12.5 and has already been bet up. That is the first tell. Colorado State is 3-2 ATS this season. Texas State is 2-3. A two-touchdown home favorite against a team that has covered more often than it has lost is not a number that needs to be laid. The points are the side.

Bet the road dog of 14 or more in a midweek Mountain West game.
Road dogs of 14 or more in Thursday night Mountain West (and predecessor conference) games since the early 2000s: 22-11 ATS (66.7%). At -110, 22 wins and 11 losses is +9.9 unit$, ROI=30.0%.

Bet Colorado State as a double-digit road underdog.
Colorado State’s ATS record as a road underdog of 10 or more (last 15 years available): 9-4 (69.2%). At -110, that is +4.5 unit$, ROI=34.6%.

Bet against Texas State as a home favorite of 14 or more.
Texas State’s ATS record as a home favorite of 14 or more (since 2016): 3-7 (30.0%). At -110, 3 wins and 7 losses is -4.4 unit$, ROI=-44.0%.

Both sides score and both sides give up points. Colorado State is averaging 37.4 and allowing 38.6. Texas State is at 34.8 and 33.2. The total sits near 70. That is a high number for a Thursday night game. It does not change the side. Texas State just lost at San Diego State as a short favorite. Before that they covered against North Texas and Incarnate Word. Colorado State has covered more often than not this year, including as a double-digit dog. The number has already moved two points toward Texas State. That is the market giving the home team respect it has not earned against the spread as chalk.

The series is not long. These two have not played often enough for a meaningful head-to-head trend. That does not change the spot. A short week home favorite laying two touchdowns is the tax more often than it is the work. Colorado State does not need to win. They need to stay within two scores. Texas State has not been covering when the number is this big at home.

Colorado State +14. Shop the hook. If it is +14.5, the value is better. If it walks inside +13, the edge shrinks. Confirm the starters. A two-touchdown home favorite on a Thursday night against a better ATS side is not a number that needs to be laid. The house does not care that the total is 70. The number and the ATS records have not agreed with Texas State.

East Carolina is laying 4.5 to 5.5 on the road at UAB on Thursday night (7:30 ET, ESPN). The Pirates are 3-2 and have won three straight. UAB is 3-3. The opener sat around 5.5 to 6.5 and has already been bet down a point. That is the first tell. East Carolina is 2-3 ATS and has covered just once in the three games it has entered as a favorite this year. UAB is 3-0 straight up at home. A short road favorite in the American on a Thursday is the tax more often than it is the work.

Bet the home dog of 5.5 or less in Thursday night American games.
Home dogs of 5.5 or less in Thursday night American (and predecessor conference) games since 2013: 41-26 ATS (61.2%). At -110, 41 wins and 26 losses is +11.9 unit$, ROI=17.8%.

Bet UAB as a home underdog.
UAB’s ATS record as a home underdog (all results available): 35-20-2 (63.6%). At -110, that is +12.5 unit$, ROI=22.3%.

Bet against East Carolina as a road favorite of 6 or less.
East Carolina’s ATS record as a road favorite of 6 or less this season: 0-1 (0%). At -110, 0 wins and 1 loss is -1.1 unit$, ROI=-100%.

East Carolina is averaging 24.8 points and allowing 22.6. UAB is at 22.2 and 25.8. The Pirates just covered as a 9.5-point home favorite against Rice. Before that they covered at Old Dominion and failed to cover against North Carolina Central. The three-game win streak is real. The ATS record as chalk is not. UAB is undefeated at Protective Stadium. Ryder Burton has 922 passing yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions. The Blazers run it more than they throw it (179.5 rushing yards a game). East Carolina’s defense has been the cleaner unit. UAB’s pass defense has been near the top of the country in yards allowed. Neither offense is lighting it up. The number is still short for a road chalk that has not been covering.

The series is old. East Carolina leads 9-4 all-time and won the last seven meetings from 2007 to 2013. The last one was a 63-14 blowout in 2013. They have not played since. That is history. It is not a current trend. It does not change the fact that UAB is 3-0 at home and East Carolina is 1-2 ATS as a favorite. Homecoming is the spot. The short week is the same for both sides. The points are the side.

Seattle is laying 2.5 on the road in Denver on Thursday night. Both teams are 3-2. Both played on Sunday. Seattle lost at home to San Francisco after turning the ball over four times. Denver won on the road at the Chargers. The short week is the same for both sides. The only difference is travel. Seattle has to fly to altitude. Denver stays home. That is the entire rotational edge on this card. The rest of the Week 6 slate is normal Sunday and Monday spacing. This is the only true short turnaround.

Sean Payton’s Broncos are 3-2 ATS this season and have been the better home side when the number is short. They are getting the points in their own building against a team that is 1-2-2 ATS and has not covered as a favorite most of the year. Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks have been solid on the road in previous seasons, but this year’s number has not agreed with them. They are still being priced as the side. That is the tax.

Bet the short home dog on equal rest in a Thursday night game.
Home dogs of 3 or fewer on Thursday night with both teams on the same short week (since the early 2000s): 38-22 ATS (63.3%). At -110, 38 wins and 22 losses is +13.5 unit$, ROI=22.5%.

Bet Denver as a home underdog.
Denver’s ATS record as a home underdog (since 2004): 33-21 (61.1%). At -110, that is +9.9 unit$, ROI=18.3%.

Bet against a road favorite of 3 or fewer on a true short week with travel.
Road favorites of 3 or fewer on Thursday night with cross-country or altitude travel (since 2006): 19-31 ATS (38.0%). At -110, 19 wins and 31 losses is -13.8 unit$, ROI=-27.6%.

Both sides played on Sunday. Seattle turned the ball over four times at home against San Francisco and still had to travel. Denver won on the road and gets to stay in the building. Altitude is not a myth on a short week. It is an extra recovery cost the visitor pays and the home side does not. Payton’s teams have covered more often than not as short home dogs in his career. Macdonald’s Seahawks are still being treated like the cleaner side even though the number has not agreed with them as chalk this year. The market is pricing the name and the recent road form. It is not pricing the turnaround and the elevation.

The rest of the Week 6 slate is normal spacing. This is the only game where both teams are on four days’ rest and one of them has to travel. A short road favorite in that spot is the tax. The points at home are the side.

Denver +2.5. Shop the hook. If it is +3, the value is better. If it walks inside +1.5, the edge shrinks. Confirm the quarterbacks. A short home dog on equal rest against a team that has not been covering as a favorite is the work. The house does not care that Seattle has been solid on the road in other years. The number and the schedule have not agreed with them this time.