John Ryan Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Phillies vs Guardians
7-Unit bet OVER currently priced at 7.5 runs.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 122-58 OVER record good for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Bet the OVER priced at 7.5 or fewer runs.

The game is an inter-league matchup.

The game occurs in May.

If the game is not the first game of the current series, the OVER has gone 80-30-4 for 73% winning bets.

Cardinals vs Nationals
7-Unit bet on the Nationals priced as a –105 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 30-23 record for 57% winning bets averaging a 135-underdog bet has resulted in a 30% ROI and a $19,930 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2007. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs. That dog was shutout in their previous game. That dog is averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game. The game is a non-divisional matchup. The dog lost the previous game by 5 or more runs.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
7-Unit bet on the Dodgers priced as a –120 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 67-43 record for 61% winning bets that have averaged a –102 wager resulting in a 17% ROI and a $26,470 profit for the Dime bettor and a $1,325 profit for the casual fan betting $50 per game. The requirements are:

Bet on any team facing an opponent that lost their previous game by 3 or more runs. In that loss, their starter posted a bad start (not a 6 inning or more start allowing 3 or fewer earned runs or quality start).

If our team was trailing in the top of the ninth inning and won the game by three or more runs has seen them go 58-35 for 62% winners that have averaged a –100 favorite resulting in a 24% ROI.

Celtics vs Knicks
7-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 6-point favorite.
3-Unit bet OVER 207 points and 2-UNITS OVER Celtics team total.

The following NBA playoff betting algorithm has produced a 59-23 SU and 49-32-1 ATS record good for 61% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are:

The game is in the playoffs.

Bet on favorites of 5.5 or more points that are trailing in the series.

Our favorite is coming off a loss.

If our favorite has lost two straight games, they improve to 28-9 SU (76%) and 23-13-1 ATS good for 64% winning bets.

Can NBA Teams Bounce Back After Dropping the First Two Games at Home in a Best-of-Seven Playoff Series?

In the high-stakes world of the NBA Playoffs, where every possession can tilt a series, losing the first two games at home in a best-of-seven series is a gut punch. It’s a scenario that strips away home-court advantage, tests a team’s resolve, and puts them in a statistical hole that’s notoriously tough to climb out of. With the 2025 NBA Playoffs in full swing—think Game 7 thrillers like the Clippers-Nuggets clash on May 3—fans and bettors alike are buzzing about comeback potential. So, how often do teams recover from this 0-2 home deficit? What does history tell us about their chances, and which teams have defied the odds to pull off this rare feat? Let’s dive into the data, break down the analytics, and spotlight the teams that turned a nightmare start into playoff glory. Get ready to act on this intel for your next playoff bet or bracket!

Historical Context and Statistical Overview

In a best-of-seven NBA playoff series, the team with home-court advantage hosts Games 1, 2, 5, and 7, making an 0-2 start at home a brutal blow. According to NBA.com, through the 2017 playoffs, teams that win the first two games of a best-of-seven series at home go on to win the series 94.0% of the time (236-15), leaving the trailing team with just a 6.0% chance of a comeback. When focusing specifically on teams losing the first two games at home, the odds are even grimmer. Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, only 6 teams out of approximately 100 instances (based on 463 total 2-0 series through 2024) have overcome this deficit, equating to a roughly 6% success rate.

There have been just 10 playoff series in which the road team won each of the first four games. The Team that won the first two games will at worst split their two games at home to take a 3-1 strangle hold on the series. Teams that lost their last two games of a playoff series after blowing a double-digit lead have gone 12-21 SU and 14-19 ATS. If that team is playing on the road, they are a horrid 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS for 31% winners.

This rarity stems from the need to win 4 of the next 5 games, with at least two victories on the road (Games 3 and 4, plus potentially Game 6 or 7). The 2-2-1-1-1 format amplifies the challenge, as the trailing team faces hostile crowds in Games 3, 4, and 6. Yet, the six teams that pulled it off—spanning 1969 to 2021—show it’snot impossible, driven by superstar performances, defensive adjustments, and road grit. Let’s explore these comeback stories and the analytics behind their success.

Teams That Overcame an 0-2 Home Deficit

Below is a detailed list of the six NBA teams that lost the first two games at home in a best-of-seven playoff series and rallied to win, including the season, opponent, playoff round, and series outcome. Data is sourced from Quora, Land of Basketball, and X posts, covering post-merger instances and one pre-merger case.

Spreadsheet of Teams, Opponents, and Seasons

Season

Team

Opponent

Playoff Round

Series Outcome

Key Players/Notes

1969

Los Angeles Lakers

San Francisco Warriors

Western Division Semifinals

Won 4-2

Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor; pre-merger, early NBA era with less travel impact.

1993

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Lakers

First Round (best-of-5)

Won 3-2

Charles Barkley’s MVP season; Suns won Games 3-4 on road, closed in Game 5 at home.

1994

Houston Rockets

Phoenix Suns

Western Conference Semifinals

Won 4-3

Hakeem Olajuwon’s 37 PPG; Rockets won Games 3-4, lost Game 5, won Games 6-7.

2005

Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets

First Round

Won 4-3

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady duel; Mavs won Games 3-4, 6-7 after dropping Game 5.

2017

Boston Celtics

Chicago Bulls

First Round

Won 4-2

Isaiah Thomas’ 33 PPG; Celtics won Games 3-4, 5-6 after Rajon Rondo’s injury shifted momentum.

2021

Los Angeles Clippers

Dallas Mavericks

First Round

Won 4-3

Kawhi Leonard’s 36 PPG; road teams won first six games, Clippers closed in Game 7.

Notes:

The 1993 Suns series was a best-of-five, technically requiring only 3 wins, but it’s included as a rare 0-2 home comeback. Modern best-of-seven formats (post-2003) make the feat harder.

Data excludes pre-1976 seasons except 1969, as earlier formats (e.g., best-of-five) and travel dynamics differ. X posts confirm six instances, with debate on pre-merger inclusion. post:1,5,6

No team has achieved this comeback in the NBA Finals, and only one (2021 Clippers) occurred in the last decade, highlighting its rarity.

How Many Teams Have Come Back?

Out of approximately 100 best-of-seven series where a team lost the first two games at home (estimated from 463 total 2-0 series through 2024), 6 teams have successfully come back to win, yielding a 6% success rate. This aligns with 94.0% win rate for teams up 2-0 at home (236-15 through 2017), implying 15 losses, of which 6 are confirmed 0-2 home comebacks.

Why Is It So Hard to Come Back?

Statistical Hole: Teams up 2-0 win 93.5% of series overall (273-19 through 2017), and 94.0% when those wins are at home. The trailing team must win 4 of 5 games, including at least two on the road, against a team that’s already proven it can steal homecourt.

Road Challenges: Games 3 and 4 are on the opponent’s floor, where the home team wins 73.9% of Game 7s (113-40 through 2024), per NBC Sports Boston. Winning both road games is critical, as all six comeback teams did so.

Momentum and Pressure: Losing two straight at home often signals defensive or matchup issues, as seen in the 2025 Cavaliers’ 0-2 deficit to the Pacers, where Tyrese Haliburton’s 30 PPG exposed Cleveland’s backcourt.

Modern Parity: Since 2000, 22 of 34 total 0-2 comebacks (not just home losses) occurred, reflecting increased parity, but only two (2017 Celtics, 2021 Clippers) involved 0-2 home.

Anatomy of a Comeback: What It Takes

The six successful comebacks share common traits, backed by analytics and historical trends:

Superstar Performances: Each team leaned on an elite scorer—Hakeem Olajuwon (37 PPG in 1994), Kawhi Leonard (36 PPG in 2021), Isaiah Thomas (33 PPG in 2017). Star players must elevate, as seen with Charles Barkley’s MVP-level play in 1993.

Road Dominance: All six teams won Games 3 and 4 on the road, shifting momentum. The 2021 Clippers’ series, where road teams won the first six games, underscores this, with Leonard and Paul George combining for 65 PPG in Games 3-4.

Defensive Adjustments: The 2017 Celtics capitalized on Rajon Rondo’s injury, holding Chicago to 95.5 PPG in Games 3-6 after allowing 108.5 in Games 1-2. The 1994 Rockets clamped down on Phoenix’s 3-point shooting, limiting them to 35% in Games 3-4.

Clutch Execution: Four of the six series went to Game 7, requiring road wins in hostile environments. The 2005 Mavericks’ 112-110 Game 7 win in Houston, fueled by Dirk Nowitzki’s 39 points, exemplifies this grit.

Opponent Weaknesses: Injuries or inexperience helped. The 2017 Bulls lost Rondo, and the 2005 Rockets leaned on young Tracy McGrady, who faded late. The 2021 Mavericks’ Luka Dončić (35 PPG) lacked secondary scoring.

Analytics Deep Dive

Series Progression: Teams that win Games 3 and 4 after losing the first two at home improve their odds significantly. X posts note a 4-3 record for teams winning both Games 3 and 4, compared to 0-11 if they split or lose both. This aligns with teams winning Game 3 in a 1-1 series win 73.3% of the time (162-59), suggesting momentum shifts are critical.

Home vs. Road Splits: The 2021 Clippers’ series was an anomaly, with road teams winning all seven games, a first in NBA history. Typically, home teams dominate Game 7s (113-40, 73.9%), making road Game 7 wins (like the Clippers’ 130-122 in Dallas)

Scoring Margins: Comeback teams often outscore opponents significantly in Games 3-4. The 1994 Rockets averaged a +15.5 margin in Games 3-4 vs. Phoenix, while the 2017 Celtics posted a +12.5 margin.

Playoff Experience: Veterans like Olajuwon (1994), Nowitzki (2005), and Leonard (2021) thrived under pressure, while younger teams (e.g., 2021 Mavericks) faltered.