There’s no doubt that betting on sports is a tricky business, but there are plenty of tools that professional handicappers use to give them an added edge over the bookmaker. Some guys like to focus on situational handicapping, while others might use a contrarian approach.
Ricky Tran is primarily a “numbers guy”, with a keen eye for exploiting relevant trends and statistics. Ricky will tell you that finding hot trends is the easy part, the hard part is figuring out which of those trends to use, and which to ignore. Here are a few games that Ricky is looking at today:
CBB: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers +5
Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings
The Tigers have lost two straight and four of six to fall off the NCAA Tournament board. They’re however 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss and 7-1 SU at home in league play. They need just one more victory to set a school record for home ACC wins in a single season. The Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 79-74 Saturday and are going for a third straight ACC regular-season crown. They should not be favored by this many points at Clemson though.
Ricky Says: TAKE IT!
NBA: Portland Trail Blazers vs. New York Knicks Over 208
Over is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 overall
There’s no doubt that the Trail Blazers can drive up the score, but the same thing can not be said about the lowly Knicks. New York has lost 14 of 17 after falling 98-81 at home to Miami on Sunday and the under is 7-2 in the Knicks last 9 home games. Carmelo Anthony’s surgically repaired left knee is acting up and Arron Afflalo’s status will be determined later today. Portland’s Damian Lillard has gone for at least 30 points in seven of his last eight games with an average of 33.3 in that span, but he’s never had a 30-point game against the Knicks and he’s averaging 20.3 points in seven meetings.
Ricky Says: TOSS IT!
NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals Under 5
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Washington
The Caps dropped a 3-2 decision at Chicago on Sunday, their second loss in three contests. They could have newly acquired blueliner Mike Weber available tonight and Braden Holtby has a 1.35 GAA and two shutouts in his last six starts against Pittsburgh. The Pens are coming off a pair of home wins against Winnipeg (4-1) and Arizona (6-0). Despite both teams having plenty of offensive talent at their disposal, I’m more impressed by their defending right now.
Ricky Says: TAKE IT!