I'm playing on Atlanta/Minnesota OVER the total. The Hawks have been on an extended 'under' streak. However, I expect it to come to an end this afternoon. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 247 points. The time before that, they combined for 238. Both those games had O/U lines in the high 230s. Yet, thanks in large part to Atlanta's recent 'under' streak, we're working with a much lower O/U number here. For a "non-conference" matinee game, I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The T-Wolves don't play defense. They've given up 118 or more points in eight of their last nine games. (The only exception was a time when they played the second of b2b games against the same team.) The OVER is 38-19 the past 57 times that Minnesota faced a team from the Eastern Conference, including an 18-3 OVER mark against teams from the Southeast. During that span, the Hawks have seen the OVER go 15-5 against Northeast opponents and 36-19-1 against Western Conf. teams overall. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. This was going to be a tough game for the Jets, no matter what. However, things are even more difficult than normal. For starters, they've only played one game. So, thats less than ideal. They had to cancel Saturday's practice due to Covid concerns. Again, not so good. Then, yesterday, their star player (Laine) got hurt in practice. His status is up in the air, as of this writing. However, he had two goals and an assist in Winnipeg's first game. So, if he doesn't play, or even if he's less than 100%, he'll be missed. The Leafs have scored more goals (11) than any other team in the league, thus far. Look for their extra games played to prove significant in this one. 

I'm playing on Baylor/Kansas OVER the total. This O/U line came down from its opener. While I respect both defenses, I believe thats providing us with excellent value with the OVER. Keep in mind that Kansas averages more than 76 ppg while Baylor averages more than 87 ppg. True, those numbers were built up in non-conf. play and both teams have scored considerably less in Big 12 play. That said, neither team is going to go away tonight. Kansas lost 75-70 last time out, a game which fell below the number by a half point. (Remember, we're working with a lower number here.) After their only previous Big 12 loss, the Jayhawks responded by going on the road and scoring 93 points (at TCU) in their next game. Alwawys tough off a Big 12 loss, the Jayhawks know they'll need to put up a big number to compete tonight, with Baylor averaging more than 91 ppg at home. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on San Antonio/Portland OVER the total. With McCollum out for Portland and with both teams having played some recent 'unders,' we're working with a relatively low O/U number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Recent meetings between these teams have been high-scoring, the last two games producing 242 and 237 points. Going back further finds the OVER at 7-1-1 the past nine in the series. The Spurs have seen 32 of their past 50 road games, when the O/U line was 220 or more, finish above the number. I'm expecting an up-tempo game and for those stats to improve this afternoon. 

I'm playing MILWAUKEE on the moneyline. Needless to say, this is a huge showdown in the East. I believe that the timing of it favors the Bucks. The Nets clearly have some weapons. They're still learning how to work together though while the Bucks are more familiar with each other. Many are already anointing the Nets as the Conference Champs. However, the Bucks opened as (slight) favorites on the road for a reason and they're going to come in with a chip on their shoulder, ready to remind everyone that the path to the Eastern title goes through Milwaukee. With all the offensive firepower on the floor, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits Milwaukee just fine. The Bucks are 21-6 SU their last 27 on the road, when the O/U line was 230 or more. They're also 21-7 SU the past 28 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Not only did the Bucks have the last two days off, they get the next two off, too. Rested and focused, expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Oilers are only playing their fourth game but already they're playing in the "revenge" role for the second time. After losing their opener against the Canucks, the Oilers found themselves facing them again for their second game. Playing with very recent "revenge," they immediately bounced back and salvaged the "split" of the 2-game series. Once again, having lost 5-1 to these same Canadiens, the Oilers find themselves "playing for the split." Once again, I expect them to respond with a huge effort. Even factoring in Montreal's win, the Oilers have still taken two of the last three meetings in the series. Going back further finds Edmonton at 5-2 the past seven meetings and 10-4 the past 14. There's no question that the Habs outplayed and outworked them on Saturday. Hockey's funny though. Expect an entirely different result, as the revenge-minded Oilers bounce back and resume their recent dominance in the series. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. With an undefeated record, UConn has obviously played well. Still, this is a lot of points to be laying against an experienced and well-coached St. John's team. Playing without James Bouknight, I believe that it'll prove to be too many. I often don't mention players in my writeups but Bouknight isn't just any player. He's a potential NBA lottery pick and leads the Huskies with 23.2 ppg. His loss is significant. Note that the Huskies managed 60 points in their last game and that they're just 3-7 SU/ATS the past 10 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. Over its past five games, St. John's has beaten both Georgetown and Butler while staying close to Xavier and very close to Marquette. Expect the Red Storm to "come to play," as they almost always do, giving their hosts, who will be adjusting to life without Bouknight, a much tougher game than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Orlando/NY OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U number on the MLK Day board. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Sometimes teams play a different style on the road than they do at home. A look at Orlando's results shows that they've seen the 'under' go 1-5 at home, but the OVER go 5-1-1 on the road. The Magic have allowed at least 107 points in all seven of those road games, an average of 118.6. Those games averaged a whopping 228.3 combined points. In their first two games of the current trip, the Magic have conceded 124 and 122. Of course, the Knicks don't tend to score that many and enter on an 'under' streak. That said, this will be just the second time all season that they played a home game, after having played the previous days. The first time in that situation, the game finished above the total. In fact, the Knicks scored more (130-110 win!) in that 12/27 game then they have in any other one all season. It should also be noted that NY home games have been considerably higher-scoring than NY road games, the opposite of Orlando. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number.